Category: Equities – long

For now, SodaStream’s concentrating in the United States (i.e., the Americas).  And for good reason.  Whether you call it a secular trend, or just a fad, no one can deny that SODA’s Americas’ growth is fantastic.

Source: SodaStream, Socially Responsible Investing

So then, everything must be Hunky-Dory at SodaStream.  Or No ?

SodaStream shares lost their fizz after they beat the Street’s estimates for 2Q’11.  Which makes me ponder what would have happened if they DIDN’T beat the Street!  CEO Daniel Birnbaum later (8/18/11) appeared at a mini roadshow speaking with Jim Cramer, but the damage was already done (see stock chart).

Source: GoogleFinance

Several analysts and Seeking Alpha members were disappointed that SodaStream didn’t raise its 2011 guidance.  After all, at this rate, revenue growth would implicitly be expected to slow down to c.20%.

The lack of color in this outlook picture is surely reason for pause.  So, what’s going on in Western Europe ?  Well, according to Birnbaum, everything’s Kosher.  He basically said:

• Indicators of Americas and Europe are fine
• In fact, Europe will benefit if its economy slows, as it’s a value proposition

Whoa, whoa, whoa.. REALLY…?

• To me, SodaStream’s still a consumer discretionary product, in fact, Birnbaum doesn’t want to market it as a value-product.  The deal is, you can’t say that it’s a higher-valued/differentiated item (see company presentations) then later say it’ll sell well because it has a strong value proposition.  In fact, in my earlier analysis, I proved that SodaStream does not significantly reduce soda costs.  See SA article Should SodaStream go Single?

• More evidence that weakness in Europe will effect SodaStream’s business comes from Linda Montag and Yasmina Serghii-Douvin of Moody’s.  They expect European soda demand to remain lethargic, especially in the ever-expanding countries with troubles (e.g., Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy).  As proof, they give the example of Greece’s 2010 slowdown (one of the first) which significantly reduced soda volumes at Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co.
• Recall that SODA’s Western European revenues declined in 2009 attributed to significant business and inventory management problems at one of its Nordic distributors.  A portion of the problems were directly related to the Financial Crises.

• SODA would also be hurt if the EURO, which has held up remarkably well in the $1.40/EUR area, declines.

Despite all the talk about the hot Americas/U.S. business, the fact is that much of SodaStream’s revenues still come out of Western Europe (see chart below).

Source: SodaStream, Socially Responsible Investing

Also note that given the geographic proximity and close economic ties, Eastern Europe will undoubtedly be affected by a slowdown in Western Europe.  So where does that leave SodaStream?

So then, maybe SodaStream should be looking East !

Going back to my opening comments, maybe, just maybe, SodaStream should focus its energies on the East.  Wait, wait, you say that “SODA’s already in Asia.”  And to that I respond, not really….

Yes, the company is doing a small amount of business in Asia-Pacific (see above chart).  However, drilling-down it appears nearly all of it is actually in Australia and New Zealand.  Should we really call those Anglo-Saxons examples of what it means to be Asian?

Instead, I suggest SodaStream delve into China and Japan.  Japan’s consumer-profile is somewhat similar to Europe and the U.S., and we all know they love robots and other gadgets.  In fact, management did mention their intention to enter the Japanese market by this year’s end.   Also, I strongly believe that SODA should enter the Chinese market, especially since Coke and Pepsi are already educating its consumers.  Besides, the trajectory of soda consumption is salivating.  See chart courtesy the WSJ.

Of course, entering China and Japan has its own share of problems.  Birnbaum, cited difficulties with language, regulations and advertising contracts in Japan.

In China, the largest issue will be protection of intellectual property rights and lack of full control of local entities.  Remember…those CO2 carbonators SodaStream “sells” to you actually come with a license agreement, which effectively empowers SodaStream to collect 70-80% gross margins.

I welcome constructive comments and criticisms.  So long as we’re listening with open minds, I believe we will all benefit from them.

Disclosure:  the author is long SODA

As most know by now, SodaStream’s (SODA’s) machines allow consumers to make sparkling water and customized sodas using ordinary tap water. This time around, Yonah highlighted the big and immediate 2,900 store roll-out at Wal-Mart. He also mentioned new products, and there are always new products from this nifty company. You know…patent-pending “snap & lock” mechanisms, the LED “Fiz chip”, and “sodacaps” ala Keurig – also patent-pending. SodaStream would like everyone and their grandpops making Soda-pops.

Daniel Birnbaum and Yonah Lloyd typically ask the audience to raise their hands if they know SODA’s product, then later give real-time demonstrations and tastings for the thirsting crowd. Yonah also highlighted last quarter’s great earnings. During a later 1Q’12 call, revenues and earnings were revised upward. Despite all the optimism, some investors are shorting SODA, in fact 10 million shares worth, which equates to 56% of their float, (2nd highest on Wall Street).
Investors having “issues” with Sodastream are concerned about:

1. whether the Euro-Crises will affect its business
2. bypassing the company’s CO2 refill bottles via by utilizing large CO2 tanks or from “white label” CO2 brands
3. the “home-made” soda phenomenon seems faddish
4. high marketing spend and working capital which is causing negative cash flow

Those investors that do own the stock, talk about how enjoyable the sodamakers are to use, and the company’s rapid earnings growth. So then, who’ll be right in this tug-of-war? For that, we visit the issues below:

Euro-Crises: I believe that the Euro-Crises will eventually “catch-up” with the company, though less so than most global companies given that its product is a “value proposition” and due to its low exposure to Europe’s sick periphery countries. As recently as 1Q’12, management said European “traction was good” in particular the new French market, as well as Switzerland, Germany,and the Nordics. (Note: as this article was being written, Moody’s lowered Germany’s credit outlook to negative.)

Bypassing CO2 refills: Some investors are bearish on the company because the CO2 refills can be bypassed using two methods. First, consumers can simply go on the Internet and find ways of making their own soda using conventional (and huge) CO2 tanks. While true, this is unlikely to happen for several reasons including safety, ease-of-use, space issues, etc.
There’s also the risk of “white label” brands, meaning an outside company can produce its own CO2 containers that are exactly the same specifications as SodaStream’s. I believe there is some credence to this in certain parts of the world, but not in the U.S. (which will be the largest market within five years). U.S. law is more favorable towards corporations and also note that SodaStream’s CO2 refills are protected by U.S. patents. In March 2012, the Swedish Competition Authority (SCA) terminated its investigation of SodaStream’s CO2 business. If SODA lost that case, it would have had to allow other third-party refillers. And that judgement could have been used as a template for cases in other countries.

Home Sodamaking seems like a Fad: Some say that SodaStream’s products are just a craze driven by the Healthy Foods Movement. Seems to me these accusations are a fad! First of all, fads take time to gain momentum. But by this time, investors could have sold the shares, as most investors keep their shares for just a few months (see chart below). This makes the fad argument illogical.

Source: NYSE Fact Book

Negative Cash Flow issue: I created a free cash flow (FCF) discount model. The model answers the last investor issue (that the company’s bleeding cash). The company does have negative cash flow in 2011, however, this is projected to turn positive this year. In fact, management expects positive cash flow as soon as the next reported quarter (2Q’12).
I used a WACC (weighted average cost of capital) of 11.3%, which is a blended mix of the cost of debt and equity. I believe SodaStream’s WACC should be at least 11% given the shares’ volatility. (High volatility, or Beta is associated with higher costs of equity.)

Year 1-5 free cash flows are projected to grow at a 35% rate, slowing to 3% longer term. After discounting FCF, I attained a calculated price of $74.60/share for a 49% discount to the current share price. Values were converted at an exchange rate of $1.30/EUR.

As readers may have concluded, I believe they’re focusing on the wrong issues. SodaStream releases earnings on August 8th, and I believe investors should focus on these questions:
1) Does SodaStream still feel somewhat immune to the Euro-Crises?
2) How effective has the Fx hedging program been (especially for the Euro)?
3) What is the attrition (i.e., churn) rate for the U.S. market?
4) How is management addressing the West Bank (Israel/Palestine) issue?